Jul 24, 2015 Casinos set up 6/5 games, where the house pays only 6-to-5 on a natural blackjack. So on a natural blackjack, the casino pays only $12 on a $10 bet. That becomes a huge difference in the amount of money you win in an hour's time. Changing the payoffs on blackjacks adds 1.39% to the house edge on that game of blackjack.
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Hi guys. This is Mike.
Red rock casino package deals. The topic of this Wizard of Odds Academy video will be on the importance of a blackjack paying 3 to 2 odds in blackjack as opposed to 6 to 5, which is a very common rule variation right now.
Here in Las Vegas
You see a lot of players playing 6 to 5 blackjack even at high amounts. Frankly, I have no idea why other than out of a ignorance of math.
I hate to have to insult your intelligence by even pointing this out, but 3 / 2 = 1.5, 6 / 5 is 1.2. The player will get 30% of a bet more with every winning blackjack if he's playing 3 to 2 blackjack as opposed to 6 to 5.
How important is that rule mathematically?
Let's see:
Let's assume six decks of cards, which is the norm, and that the player has no knowledge of any other cards in the deck. One piece pirate warriors 4. The probability that the first card the player gets is worth 10 points, is 96 / 312 because there are 96 10-point cards, 16 x 6 is 96, and 312 total cards in the shoe. 52 x 6 is 312. Assuming the player's first card is a 10-point card.
He at least has hope of a blackjack. He will need an ace or that second card. There are 24 aces in the shoe, and 311 cards left.
However..
..the player might get the ace first. It's just as likely to get the ace first in a blackjack as a blackjack, starting with a 10-point card. We multiply this by two. The probability the player gets a blackjack is equal to 4.75%. However, in order for this pay to make any difference, it must be a winning blackjack. If the dealer gets a blackjack too, then it doesn't make any difference.
Once the player has a blackjack, what is the probability that dealer will get one? Well, again, the dealer could get the ace and the 10 in either order thus the two. There will be 95 10-point cards left in the shoe out of 310 cards. After you take out the two player cards, there will be 23 aces left by the time it's the dealer's second card.
Assuming the player has a blackjack, the probability that the dealer gets one as well is 4.56%. It goes down because the player already has an ace and a 10 out of the shoe. The odds are a little bit down due to the effect of removal. The probability that the player has a winning blackjack equals 4.75% x (1 - 4.56%).
In other words, the probability of a player blackjack and times the probability that the dealer does not have a blackjack, so the probability that the player has a winning blackjack is equal to 4.53%.
The math of this is really quite easy
The probability the player has a winning blackjack is 4.53%, which is conveniently one in 21, and the game is called 21. That's easy to remember. Every time the player gets a winning blackjack, if he's playing 3 to 2 blackjack as opposed to 6 to 5, he will win 0.3 times his bet more because (3 / 2) - (6 / 5) = 0.3, as we showed before. 4.53% x 0.3 = 1.36%.
That means..
..f the player plays 6 to 5 blackjack as opposed to 3 to 2, he's giving the casino an extra 1.36% of his bet, probably for nothing. This assumes all other rules being equal.
Okay, I hope that I have convinced you guys not to play 6 to 5 blackjack when given the choice. However, if you're still on the fence, let me throw some more numbers at you.
These are all based on what are normally, otherwise, fairly standard Las Vegas Strip rules. You can find these at most of the MGM / Mirage properties. Dealer hits a soft 17, double after split allowed, player make double on any two cards, surrender is allowed, and resplitting aces is allowed. With correct basic strategy, and a blackjack paying 3 to 2, the house advantage under those rules is a nice low 0.46%.
That is giving the casino less than one in 200 hands.
It's a pretty cheap way to gamble. However, if we just change that blackjack pay from 3 to 2 to 6 to 5, then, as I just showed you, the house advantage goes up by 1.36% to 1.82%, so 0.46% to 1.82%, that is almost four times as high. That's paying four times as much for the same service and product.
Let me tell you what that looks like in terms of your expected losses per hour:
If you are a $5 player, an hour worth of play on average will cost you $1.66 at a 3 to 2 table, and $6.55 at a 6 to 5 table. A $10 player can expect to lose $3.31 per hour at a 3 to 2 table, and $13.10 at a 6 to 5 table. A $25 player can expect to lose $8.28 at a 3 to 2 table, and $32.76 at a 6 to 5 table.
Finally, a $50 player can expect to lose $16.56 at a 3 to 2 table, and $65.52 per hour at a 6 to 5 table.
I hope I've convinced you to stay away from 6 to 5 blackjack wherever you can. Now, I'm sure a lot of you are saying, 'Mike, I'm a low roller. I'm uncomfortable with the limits at the at the 3 to 2 tables.' If that's true, okay, I get it.
You may not really have the choice in that situation, and you may be stuck with 6 to 5, if you must play. Sometimes there's just nothing you can do about it and the situation is only getting worse.
Free Bet Blackjack House Edge
The casinos here in Las Vegas as well as I think everywhere in the United States, are trying to phase out 3 to 2 blackjack slowly but surely as it's really not very profitable for them.
I don't think I have anything much more to say on this topic. Thanks for watching and I'll see you in my next Wizard of Odds Academy video. Thank you. Bye, guys.
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excounter
Just wondering if a very large spread on a single deck 6-5 would overcome the house advantage? I've heard it takes a 20-1 spread, but I've also read that once the count got to plus 2 and over that an 8-1 spread can overcome the 6-5 payout and make the game beatable.
benbakdoff
Just wondering if a very large spread on a single deck 6-5 would overcome the house advantage? I've heard it takes a 20-1 spread, but I've also read that once the count got to plus 2 and over that an 8-1 spread can overcome the 6-5 payout and make the game beatable.
I refuse to call that blackjack. The 6/5 payout adds 1.4% to the house edge. A 20-1 spread seems to be in the ballpark. Wonging would be in order as well, but there goes your hands per hour. Be sure to take even money every time if allowed- it may not be. It doesn't seem that beatable to me, but I've learned to say never say never. I've never played this game, so maybe someone who has can comment. Surely you can find a shoe game with better odds.
pacomartin
Just wondering if a very large spread on a single deck 6-5 would overcome the house advantage? I've heard it takes a 20-1 spread, but I've also read that once the count got to plus 2 and over that an 8-1 spread can overcome the 6-5 payout and make the game beatable.
I don't see how you can answer that question in the abstract. For instance if you were playing single deck with player permitted to double after split, that game would have a player advantage of 0.184 % using a composition dependent player strategy with the normal 3:2 payout . I would think if you were playing this game with a one on one and were unmolested in your how you bet, and you had 90% penetration you could overcome the loss of 1.39% for changing the blackjack payout to 6:5. But for a normal casino game, you would be hard pressed to overcome that 1.39%.
P90
Just wondering if a very large spread on a single deck 6-5 would overcome the house advantage? I've heard it takes a 20-1 spread, but I've also read that once the count got to plus 2 and over that an 8-1 spread can overcome the 6-5 payout and make the game beatable.
Not even close. 8-1 is barely enough to beat a proper 3:2 shoe game with mediocre rules and cover. For 6:5 you'd need to wong in only in the best of situations for a hand or two and out again, while keeping a multi-parameter count (at least separate A and T).
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FleaStiff
One of the first signs dealers and floors note is Bet Spreading. Any transition from a sheep about to be shorn to a sheep with even the slightest wolfish grin is noted in many places. Oh sure, there will be some casinos where vigilance is a bit relaxed but I believe SouthPoint ejected three men who on an early morning game of blackjack went from from Red to Green. Now this was not Red to Black mind you, it was simply Red to Green.
So I don't know about the mathematics involved but I think the practicalities involved is simply that it can't be done. Sure places like SouthPoint are the famed 'Sweat the Money' joints and sure some places get a bit lax from time to time but in reality no one can do a very large spread. Now could you achieve a very large spread through Team Play? (Ploppy plays his darned two red chips with no variation at all but the moment he gives some secret signal slightly sloshed large bettor whose been table hopping suddenly materializes and takes advantage of a high count). The surveillance dept. and the dealers and pit crew are all supposed to remain ignorant throughout this activity. So it comes down to even if the math does work out (and I have no idea if it does or not) the practical reality is that you are going to be in a situation where you had better gulp those free drinks 'cause you ain't a gonna be sitting there for long! Whether it would be 'escorted out' or 'Play anything you want to Gentlemen, but your BlackJack skills are just too strong for us' I don't know. That is the casino's decision and might vary with the pit boss's mood but one thing is certain. If the SouthPoint comes down on a guy going from Red to Green before his free coffee is half gone, other places are going to come down on bet spreaders by the end of his second cup. So I would sum it up as 'it don't matter 'bout the math, its the realities of bet spreading that makes it a no go'.
P90
Now could you achieve a very large spread through Team Play? (Ploppy plays his darned two red chips with no variation at all but the moment he gives some secret signal slightly sloshed large bettor whose been table hopping suddenly materializes and takes advantage of a high count).
'No mid-shoe entry'. Modern counters, except for those times they find a safe game, have to use very short sessions and play around with the bet differently than the strategy suggest. A common tactic is to move only based on wins and losses, a more difficult option is to shift the bet all the time, emulating a system player. Hole-carding is a mainstream AP skill today too.
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FleaStiff
'No mid-shoe entry'. Fallsview casino niagara falls ontario canada.
Is this actually enforced? I've seen signs posted even at Baccarat tables but it still happens. At my local Happy Wampum, after the baccarat dealer asked if I minded someone joining in (I never object), the newly arriving couple paid for my then arriving drink. I've always assumed these No Mid Shoe Entry signs were scare tactics that they enforced only when they actually had suspicions or didn't like some player for some reason.>a more difficult option is to shift the bet all the time, emulating a system player. I would assume this really doesn't fool an experienced dealer or floorperson one bit. No matter how complex the 'system' might be and no matter how much a player is hopping all over on the amount of his bets, the house mentally classifies it as 'high' or 'low' and the house then correlates the bettor's action to the count. >Hole-carding is a mainstream AP skill today too. Do dealers still make inadvertent revelations of the down card? I mean that was old even in that Casino movie. Surely even these small handed and narrow fingered Asian dealers don't reveal cards all that often.
P90
Is this actually enforced?
If they're sweating the money and have the slightest suspicion? These signs aren't there for no reason, although they probably indeed scare off a lot more ordinary newcomer players than APs who know the score.
Quote: FleaStiff
I would assume this really doesn't fool an experienced dealer or floorperson one bit. No matter how complex the 'system' might be and no matter how much a player is hopping all over on the amount of his bets, the house mentally classifies it as 'high' or 'low' and the house then correlates the bettor's action to the count.
Strictly speaking, unless there's Mindplay or you've been singled out for surveillance, the house isn't really keeping count. They just see if you're changing your bet or making trademark counter plays (split tens). A total sweat-the-money joint might ban anyone who spreads a lot, they might even be afraid of martingalers. The best critters might notice you're covering your count. But in the middle, if you get yourself chalked down as any particular type (rather than avoid being chalked down as anyone), you can greatly extend the playing time.
Do dealers still make inadvertent revelations of the down card? I mean that was old even in that Casino movie. Surely even these small handed and narrow fingered Asian dealers don't reveal cards all that often.
Rarely. But if you want to make money, you have to look own for ones that do, and hang at their tables as long as you can. Counting alone just isn't seriously viable today as an AP technique, it has to be supplemented by grasping at any advantage presented.
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excounter
Just wondering if a very large spread on a single deck 6-5 would overcome the house advantage? I've heard it takes a 20-1 spread, but I've also read that once the count got to plus 2 and over that an 8-1 spread can overcome the 6-5 payout and make the game beatable.
People who wear a 'Poker Face' in a relationship usually can't love, or don't know how. Even though the song is amazing and has such good meaning, I think the ONLY way it could have been better was if that was the true line, but instead it's 'she's got me like nobody'.If it had been what you interpreted it to be, I think it would have synced with the song's theme very well. What is poker face by lady gaga about. So that line would have been awesome, when I first read the correction, I was a bit disappointed. Lady Gaga seems to be the only latest pop artist that can seem to pull it off.reminds me of Madonna a bit. General Commenti don't think the song is about leading men on with her money.she is comparing messing with somebody's feelings - with poker.a guy played her and she is acting like she still likes him and then when he falls for her, BAM'can't read my poker face'he'll end up being hurt in the end:)i love those kinds of songs.stupid boys:Boh and i love the beat to this song.to me, its a mix of old school and new wave popi like.
Here are the house rules for that single deck 6-5 game, double after split, split any pair up to four times, aces only once, dealer hits soft 17.
buzzpaff
How can anyone think you can beat 6-5 BJ or that the movie '21' was even remotely factual? The best a counter can expect is to have a 1.5% edge with perfect play. This against a game with house edge of 0.40 % and a spread of 8 to 1. The count will be positive about a third of the time, neutral a third of the time, negative a third. How big would your spread have to be to overcome that additional 1 % HE in 6-5 BJ ? 20 to 1 seems low!!!
See any big betters playing 6-5 BJ ??? that's your real answer. Shades of Ken Uston trying to convince AC casino bosses that shoe games were better for the counter because a positive count lasted longer. He was drowned out by the stampede of counters to a SD table that just opened for business. Comments are closed.
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